Half Marathon Time Prediction Formula:
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This calculator predicts your half marathon time based on your 5k race time using a well-established formula that accounts for the non-linear relationship between distance and running performance.
The calculator uses the following formula:
Where:
Explanation: The exponent of 1.06 accounts for the fact that running speed decreases slightly as distance increases, making the relationship non-linear.
Details: Knowing your predicted half marathon time helps with race pacing, training plan development, and setting realistic goals based on your current fitness level.
Tips: Enter your best recent 5k time in hours, minutes, and seconds. The calculator works best with race times (not training runs) and assumes similar conditions for both races.
Q1: How accurate is this prediction?
A: It's reasonably accurate for most runners, but individual variation exists based on training specificity, endurance, and race conditions.
Q2: Does this work for other distances?
A: Yes, the formula can be adapted for other distances by changing D1 and D2 values.
Q3: Why is the exponent 1.06?
A: Research shows this value best accounts for the non-linear decrease in speed with increasing distance for most runners.
Q4: Should I use my training 5k time?
A: For best results, use an actual race time where you ran all-out, as training runs may not reflect true performance.
Q5: How can I improve my half marathon time?
A: Focus on increasing weekly mileage, incorporating long runs, and doing specific tempo work at goal half marathon pace.